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2012: Super Sunspot Cycle Peak!

Increasing sunspot activity was clearly visible as our star approached its latest maximum, in 1999.

The next 11-year sunspot cycle will be late but strong according to a new computer prediction. The model used was virtually spot on when applied retrospectively to "forecast" the last eight solar cycles.

"We predict the next cycle will be 30% to 50% stronger than the last cycle," says the model's creator, Mausumi Dikpati, of the National Center for Atmospheric Research's High Altitude Observatory in Boulder, Colorado, US.
The Sun is currently near its minimum activity, at the tail end of a solar cycle, numbered 23. "Onset of the next cycle will be delayed by six to 12 months, to late 2007 or early 2008," Dikpati says. She expects the next peak to hit in 2012.

Although each solar cycle – from sunspot minimum to maximum and back again – is roughly 11 years, the periods can vary in length and intensity. The factors governing the cycle have been largely inscrutable.
Dikpati's team tackled the problem by incorporating updated solar dynamical theories along with observations of the Sun dating back to 1880. The result is a model of the Sun with a 20-year "memory" of its magnetic field activity.



Image: SOHO/NASA/ESA

Coronal ejections

The model can be tested using past data to "predict" the nature of cycles that have in fact already occurred – and it describes cycles 16 to 23 with better than 97% accuracy. If the model proves to make accurate real predictions, it will finally answer the 150-year-old question of what causes the sunspot cycle, said David Hathaway, a solar astronomer at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Alabama, US, during a press conference on Monday.

And understanding the solar cycle is not just important for science. If the magnetic field lines that pop up to the Sun's surface as a sunspot are twisted and rotate, the spot can yield solar flares and coronal mass ejections, which spew radiation and charged particles in Earth's direction.

Such storms can disrupt the Earth's upper atmosphere, causing numerous problems. So knowing when a cycle is likely to peak could be particularly important during a strong sunspot cycle, says Richard Behnke, director of the US National Science Foundation's Upper Atmospheric Research Section.
"This prediction suggests we're potentially looking at more communications and navigations disruptions, more satellite failures, possible disruptions of electrical grids, blackouts, and more dangerous conditions for astronauts," he says.

Spot the difference

The new results contradict those of a model published in 2005 that found the next cycle could be the weakest in 100 years. Leif Svalgaard, a member of the team behind that model, says the key difference boils down to one simple thing: "How long does the Sun remember its magnetic field?"

Both models are based on the idea that the movement of the Sun's spots is driven by a current of plasma, which pushes the remnants of spots toward the poles, where they sink.
But Svalgaard's model assumes the polar fields left over as one cycle declines then seed the sunspots of the next cycle – i.e. the field strengths from the last cycle directly indicate the strength of the sunspots during the next solar cycle. "We think the Sun forgets its magnetic memory," Svalgaard told New Scientist.

In Dikpati's new model, a sunspot's remnants are carried poleward and down to a depth of about 200,000 kilometres by a plasma "conveyor belt" over a span of about 20 years. They are then carried by a slow flow back toward the equator, and eventually surface as sunspots once again.

This means the strength of the next cycle would depend on the strength of the polar fields from the last three cycles. Cycles 21 and 22 were relatively strong, while cycle 23 was weak, so Dikpati's model predicts the next cycle will be stronger, while Svalgaard's suggests it will be weaker.

Watching and waiting

"It's good the models are diverging," Svalgaard says. "If all models predict the same thing, we don't get wiser." Which model is right will become clear in the first few years of the next solar cycle. "We're all waiting," he says.

Dikpati's model looks excellent based on the tests on previous cycles, but while Hathaway's group at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center agrees with the prediction of a strong next cycle, they disagree about a delayed onset.
Based on the last 12 cycles, "large cycles usually start early", she told New Scientist. She expects the cycle to begin in late 2006 or early 2007: "We're anxiously awaiting the appearance of those first spots in the new cycle."

Journal Reference: Geophysical Research Letters (vol 33, L05102)

The Maya calculated with this theory a super sunspot cycle for 2012... who can find it?

Summary of this model. It explains:

1) Long and short sunspot cycles

2) Very low sunspot activity.

3) Why there is a difference between the sunspot numbers South and North of the equator (slightly different speed Southern and Northern polar field)

4) Why there is very low sunspot activity South or North of the equator, while there is sunspot activity in the opposite place!

5) Outburst of magnetic field activity are seen on the theoretical model. Even in declining and low sunspot activity!


HEREWITH THE RIGHT EXPLANATION!
1) Open the excell file
2) Chart 3 is an example of an end result
3) Click on sheet 1
4) Change A5
5) The end formula will be changed immediately
6) Change A6
7) Put the mouse on row I number 1
8) Pull it lower
9) Push F11
10) The new chart will appear!

How to enlarge it?
1) Put the mouse on the last number from row C (now 486)
2) Pull it lower with the black dot on the right
3) Do the same with row F and I
4) Repeat 7 till 10

A Theoretical Calculation of the Sunspot Cycle
With the help of a simple integral, a theoretical sunspot cycle of eleven years can be imitated (copied) as follows:

The polar magnetic field of the sun rotates (theoretically) in about 37.2 days; the equatorial field in 25.75 days (the average of the last 75 years: see Long Term Variations of the Torsional Oscillations of the Sun, Solar Physics 170: 373/388, 1997, by Dirk K. Callebaut). At a certain moment, the equatorial field takes over from the polar field. Therefore we can only investigate the relationship between the field of the sun and an independent observer by measuring only each take-over movement. Through this we always compare only two variants: the converging positions of the fields in relation to the shifted point of observation. In fact we are doing nothing more than calculating the winding process of the magnetic field of the sun. At this moment we can calculate the numbers of the fields together with the converging position:

Subject: Re: Re:


360 ¸ 25.75 = 13.9805825 degrees

360 ¸ 37.19 = 9.6800215 degrees

The difference is: 13.9805825 – 9.6800215 = 4.30055848 degrees

The polar field is taken over by the equatorial field after the following number of days:

360 ¸ 4.30055848 = 83.710058 days = 1 bit

The number of circles traveled by the equatorial field is:

83.710058 ¸ 25.75 = 3.25087545

The number of circles traveled by the polar field is:

83.710058 ¸ 37.19 = 2.25087545

0.25087545 circle forms a bit and will be used as a basic unit in the calculation

First point:

0.25087545 x 360 = degrees

= 91,3 degrees

= A

Put this in relation with an observer who travels the length of the mean of the polar and equatorial field in one day.

Total length equator field = 4.370.880 km

Mean of Polar field = between 700.000 km and 900.000 km = 800.000 km

4.370.880 + 800.000 = 5.170.880 km

mean =2.585.440 km

=> This is about equal with the speed of an object that travels 360 days around the sun in one year (plus/ minus)

=> To be corrected when we know the circumference of the polar field more excactly

Comparisson speed earth

Speed earth = 29,77 km sec
29,77 x sidereal day = 2.565.000 km/day



Conclusion

Point B goes in plus minus 360 days around the sun


in this case = 83, 7 days = 83,7 degrees because days is same as degrees
= B

A - B = end formula

When you calculate and subtract both graphics, the result will be the difference between the magnetic field of the sun and an independent observer. Filling in the previous numbers in the Excel file this results in a sunspot cycle of 54.5 bits. 54.5 x 83.710058 days = 4,562.2 days = 12.49 years.

Note:

The changes of speed of both the equatorial and polar fields were not taken into account.

Sunspot cycle of 9 years

We change the hypothetical speed of the polar field into 37.16 days:

360 ¸ 25.75 = 13.9805825 degrees

360 ¸ 37.16 = 9.68783638 degrees

Difference = 4.292746117 degrees

360 ¸ 4.292746117 = 83.86240187 days = 1 bit

83.86240187 ¸ 25.75 = 3.2567923

0.2567923 circle = 1 bit

When you put these numbers in the Excel file the result is a sunspot cycle of 42 bits.

42 x 83.86240187 = 3,522.2 days = 9.64 years.

Important conclusions:

1) Only a small change in the speed of the polar or equatorial field can result in a considerable prolongation or deceleration of the sunspot cycle.

2) From a mathematical point of view there has to exist a very close correlation between the equatorial and polar field.

3) The sunspot cycle together with the polar reversal of the magnetic field of the sun lasts longer when the polar field rotates somewhat slower. A difference of only (!) 0.0807 percent causes the cycle to rise from 9.64 to 12.49 years!

Third example: the cycle of 11 years

Speed of the polar field: 37.176 days

360 ¸ 37.176 = 9.683666882 degrees

360 ¸ 25.75 = 13.9805825 degrees

Difference: 4.296915618 degrees

360 ¸ 4.296915618 = 83.7810262 days = 1 bit

83.7810262 ¸ 25.75 = 3.25363208 circle

0.25363208 circle = 1 bit

When you put these data in the Excel file, the result is a sunspot cycle of 48.0 bits.

48.0 x 83.7810 = 4,021.5 days = 11.01 years.



Very low sunspot activity.

Equator field: 25.75
Polar field: 37.291

Very long cycle
=> ALMOST ZERO SUNSPOT ACTIVITY!


To be studied:
Speed equator field: 25.75
When you slow down the speed of the polar field further to 37.4075, the length of the sunspot cycle DECREASES again to 11 years!

Question:
Is this a possible explanation for the change of the magnetic field every 11 years?
1) Cycle of 11 years based on a speed of 25.75 days (equator field) and 37.176 days (polar field)
2) Cycle of 11 years based on a speed of 25.75 days (equator field) and 37.4075 days (polar field)

=> First cycle + and other - ?

Sunspot Cycle Theory (Excel File)

Patrick Geryl © 2003 ~ 2011 / site by kAOz :: happyland