How Bad Can Solar Flares Get? |
In 1969, astrophysicist Thomas
Gold published lunar rock evidence indicating
that, within the last 30,000 years, the radiation intensity
on the Moon had reached 100 suns for 10 to 100 seconds,
possibly due to a solar nova.
In 1975, astronomer A. Lovell
suggested that sun-like stars occasionally produce flares
of up to 30,000 times more energetic than the largest
solar flare of modern times.
In 1977, astrophysicists Wdowczyk
and Wolfendale suggested that
the Sun might produce a flare a million times larger
about once every 100,000 years.
Moreover in 1978, NASA astronomers Zook,
Hartung, and Storzer
had published lunar rock evidence indicating that 16,000
years ago solar flare background radiation intensity
on the Moon's surface had peaked to 50 times the current
intensity and that this may have been somehow associated
with the retreat of the ice sheets.
November 4th 2003 saw the most powerful solar flare
eruption on record (see graphic on the left). This solar
explosion broke all records and is an event without
precedence in living memory. When the next solar cycle
wil go to its maximum, there is little doubt that larger
flares will occur. Flares last from a few seconds to
at most a couple of hours so only one one side of the
Earth would be devastated.
Concordance (1999): Astronomers announced that they
had observed large explosive outbursts from the surfaces
of nearby normal sunlike stars. These "superflares"
were observed to range from 100 to 10 million times
the energy of the largest flare observed on the Sun
in modern times!
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Solar Flares on the Rise |
April 2, 2001, solar flare number 9393 broke all
records for brightness and strength, weighing in at
the unheard-of X-class of 22; the measurement scale
had previously only been designed to go to a frightful
maximum of 20. This flare was considered the largest
of its kind ever observed for at least 25 years, earning
it the new name of “mega-flare.” It was
nearly three times more powerful than the March 1989
event, which totally shut down Canada’s power
grid. Fortunately, the X-22 level of radiation from
flare number 9393 did not directly impact the earth.
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Impact on the Earth |
On April 10, 2001, two CMEs were released.
Then, on April 11th, a rash of severe tornadoes, some
a quarter of a mile wide, ripped through the Midwestern
United States, affecting Kansas, Iowa, Oklahoma, Missouri
and Nebraska. Furthermore, a 5.9 earthquake on April
13 that destroyed 30,000 homes in China, and a 6.5 on
April 15 off the coast of Japan. Most scientists would
not be willing to acknowledge the connection between
the solar activity and events such as severe weather
and earthquakes, but again we see how the energy phenomena
are related. All these events clustered around the surge
in solar activity of April 10th.
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Update 15 Sept 2005: Solar Minimum Explodes |
It has not been quiet. 2005 began with an X-flare on
New Year's Day--a sign of things to come. Since then
we've experienced 4 severe geomagnetic storms and 14
more X-flares.
"That's a lot of activity," says solar physicist
David Hathaway of the National
Space Science and Technology Center in Huntsville,
Alabama. Compare 2005 to the most recent Solar Max:
"In the year 2000," he recalls, "there
were 3 severe geomagnetic storms and 17 X-flares."
2005 registers about the same in both categories. Solar
minimum is looking strangely like Solar Max.
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Patrick Geryl © 2005 ~ 2007 / site by kAOz :: happyland |
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